I wrote this on 13th of March 2014 and for some reason was hesitant about sharing it on facebook.
What result saves the union?
The No campaign with the backing of the UK parliamentary parties, government cabinet and unionist press and media have been running a co-ordinated campaign of lies, confusion and scaremongering.
The intention is quite simply to plant the seed of doubt and to germinate that seed until roots are set and a tree begins to grow. Once suitable evidence of successful germination is observed then the campaign moves to new ground and starts the process again.. and before long the seeds become an untamed forest of fear.
This is a fairly high risk strategy but one that can be seen repeatedly throughout the history of nations leaving UK control.
The gamble is that the electorate will be too wrapped up in fear to ever feel secure or confident enough in themselves to see through the strategy. If the wings of self-confidence are clipped as soon as the egg cracks then the chicks will believe they are dependent on their overseer without question. Once they are resigned to this dependency any desire to fly the coop will be vanquished. Take away the somewhat forced avian analogy and it sounds quite astonishingly like .. well, you substitute the birds for humans and see what it sounds like to you..
So, what if the strategy works? What result is required in the referendum in order to halt the demise of the union?
Say for instance the current polls are to be believed and the country votes no by a a majority of around 8-10%. Does anyone believe for a second that the fight for independence will stop there?
Having elevated the independence movement from a perceived parochial minority to almost half of the population, does anyone believe that any independence supporter will just hold their hands up and resign to the wishes of westminster?
Say the result is as above, the clouds clear and people reflect on the messages of the Yes and No campaign in the cold light of day. Does anyone think that even the No voting Scots will be satisfied when they realise that they have been insulted and abused for the two years leading up to the referendum?
Does the No campaign’s strategy really leave a healthy relationship between Scotland and Westminster as its legacy?
So what happens to Scotland in that scenario?
How does any political party in Westminster present its unique form of “enhanced powers” to parliament in a manner which can to convince the members of competing parties (all with alternate ideas) that they are right and gain the necessary cross-party agreements (particularly as Labour can’t even agree amongst themselves on what these powers should be)?
How does Westminster appease the Welsh and N.I. assemblies who potentially see Scotland gain powers that they will be denied?
How does a parliament so hell-bent on perpetuating the myth that Scotland is subsidised by the electorate in the South, somehow convince them that Scotland deserves more powers.
What if none of these agreements can be made? What if instead, as a lesson to the rebelious Scots powers are actually removed from the Scottish Parliament?
What if the Scottish Parliament, which Scots overwhelmingly voted in favour of, is disbanded? After all, when are those bothersome Scots going to ever be happy? if you give them more powers, they’ll want even more and yet they will still vote in issues that don’t affect Scotland!
What happens when the remaining 60% of austerity cuts come into play and poverty and foodbank dependency reaches record levels, whilst mortality rates in Scotland worsen as a result with many not reaching the retirement age?
What happens when the UK government calls the EU in/out referendum and the South of England votes to pull us out?
What happens when the EU subsidies and grants no longer come to Scotland, when foreign companies who choose to operate in Scotland due to the access provided to the EU’s single market, decide to up sticks and leave?
What happens when there is no pressure on London to regulate their financial markets and we’re not party to the European Court of Human Rights?
.. what happens when the next financial crash occurs?
.. What happens when the oil runs out?
What happens if there is a landslide victory for the No campaign?
If the vast majority of Scots confirm their subservience to a broken system, How likely is it that any “enhanced power” plans will even see the light of day?
How likely is it that this scenario wouldn’t just accelerate the power-stripping or disbandment of the Scottish Parliament?
So, with an un-budging support in independence despite the No vote and no improvement in equality or social justice on the cards.. how likely is it that the independence question will disappear?
How likely is it that with fresh wounds those who were scared enough by the fear-mongering to vote NO, will continue to be scared and confused? How long before they become discontented and angry and start to question their choice?
Independence isn’t a “flash in the pan” phase, this is a journey and it is inevitable. I hope that it happens peacefully and democratically as a result of this year’s referendum and believe that it will.
I hope that with a transformative yes vote and a renewed interest in politics, we can build an inspirational parliament and strong constitution which offers us all protections we are not currently granted.
I hope that the North of England as well as Wales & N.I. are inspired by our actions, to force the hand of the Westminster oligarchy and topple the broken political monster.
Independence isn’t just about us, its about our friends and neighbours, its about democracy and fairness.
However, if it goes the other way, the debt-riddled UK will not be able to afford another crash (which many economists believe is on the horizon).
A UK outwith EU will suffer massively from the cutting its ties with the world’s biggest single market, and Scotland, the North of England, Wales & N.I. will suffer from lack of funding as it will become increasingly clear that only London and the South East of England warrant any support from a cash-strapped parliament.. just ask Boris Johnson.
There is NO good result for the No campaign, they may be able to stem the tide for now.. but time and tide wait for no man (or woman), Westminster’s days are numbered.
Scotland will be independent. Let’s take it now, without animosity, as the future campaigns are not likely to be as civil.